wallpaper Am I Bummed Out About My Netflix Trade?

Another snow storm for tonight and into tomorrow. I will probably take the day off.

Am I Bummed Out About My Netflix Trade?
I have been open about my new trading strategy so far in the new year. I wanted to take a minute and discuss my Netflix (NFLX) trade that I had on earlier this month in light of tonight's earnings release and stock price run up after hours.

Quick recap;
Using the iBankCoin PPT trading algo and screening for (their hybrid score) oversold stocks that had high institutional ownership I was a little surprised to see NFLX show up as it almost never seems to get oversold. The other stock I found was Edwards Biosciences (EW). There were quite a few other stocks or ETF's that showed up, but these two I liked the best on a short term risk/reward metric after working the charts and doing my own analysis.

Here is a 4 hour chart of NFLX that shows the basic setup I was looking at on January 7, 2011 via FreeStockCharts:
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I do not want to hash out all the particulars, I am not a trading teacher. I liked:
-Oversold condition (both chart wise and Hybrid OverSold score)
-Momentum oscillators favorable for an uptick
-Overall favorable market (everything going up)

I entered in at $178 and had a target to the upside of 10%, or about $196. The action on the stock was very favorable and I was even very close to my target around January 18 ($192). So what happened?

Things happened. They always will and do.

Steve Jobs announced he was taking a leave from Apple and that put a fear jolt into the tech space for whatever reason. Market internals began to weaken as well. Momentum stocks in general (I call them MOMO stocks) began to get walloped after Coinstar (CSTR) blew up (down 25%) after missing earnings by some fraction. Tom Demark said the world was going to end (stocks to pull back 10%, OH NO!). All this was going on and and you know what, it doesn't matter.

I never had any intention of holding a MOMO type stock into earnings (see CSTR). As the chart for NFLX began to weaken on the hourly looks, I rolled up stops to protect gains. I was stopped out on January 20 at $188 for a gain of about 6%. I felt pretty good about my discipline and a nice gain. NFLX would move to as low as $180 in the following days.

So what's the point of this post? It is this:
Netflix reaches 20M subscribers in 4Q, lifting earnings 52 percent; stock soars 9 percent
NFLX is trading at around $200 tonight in after hours trading.

Am I bummed out? Sure, that was the move I wanted and then some. Who would not be a little down after that? I am human, not a robot.

Am I really upset? Not at all. I stayed with my plan and traded my style, conservative and protective of gains. I observed the technicals of the situation and acted accordingly. I was pleased with how I was able to use the PPT tools to find two stocks I never would have bought otherwise and I felt confident about my trades.

Well, that 13-15% pop would have been nice to ride though......

Have a good night.

wallpaper Friday and Fun: 2gether + 4ever = 6cess!

That title brings back the days of trading notes in grade school! Why that came to mind will be apparent below, but that stuff was funny. Remember folding the notes in a way that the teacher could never figure out how to open them? Beats ciphers.

Market Currents
Another day, another move up. I wrote a bit last night about the "wall of worry" and so it continues. Those with a mind to "shake hands with the government" and get in bed with the FED may want to scope out muni related instruments. These things are insane cheap when you consider the soon to be unleashed 100% US Government guarantee. Should not be too long now. This is not investment advice.

My tight stops on EW and NFLX were not triggered today so I remain in both stocks. I will be looking for new trades next week as nothing I turned up using screens late this week really jumped out at me.

Friday Night Entertainment
Sorry for the light content, but I am in a good mood and want to get on with the show!

NFL Divisional Playoffs
After a wild wildcard weekend it is time to see who has what.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (4:30pm Saturday)
This is going to be a rough game. I am torn, they are evenly matched.
Steelers 27, Ravens 24

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (8:00pm Saturday)
I am not sold on the Falcons due to their defense not being that good, but they are a good team. I just like the Pack here.
Packers 31, Falcons 28 OT (And remember there are new OT RULES!)

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (1:00pm Sunday)
This one screams upset special and trap game. I think Julius Peppers will be all too happy to be back in the playoffs and he is the difference late.
Bears 24, Seahawks 20

New York Jets at New England Patriots (4:30pm Sunday)
This third game between the two teams is hard to call. The week 2 drubbing of the Pats in New York was a different Pats team. The Patriots demolition of the Jets a few weeks ago seemed like the Jets were a bit overwhelmed by the moment. I think this game will be the game I expected the last time, a great one.
Patriots 28, Jets 21

Did You Know?
-Pistachios are dangerous cargo?
-That Port Royal in Jamaica (a favorite Pirate destination) was destroyed and engulfed by the sea after an earthquake in 1692?
-The Klenow Fragment enzyme can be used to repair ends of DNA by either chewing off broken ends or filling them in?
-One of the largest planes ever built, The Spruce Goose, was made from wood?

Pictures and Such
A few funnies. I will try and get more pics of my Pug and Cat this weekend. Those two are popular! Maybe I should make them a Facebook page?! I got a bunch of pug art prints for the wife at Christmas which now decorate the kitchen. Here is one, the Pugspresso:
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KNOW YOUR GREMLIN FACTS!:
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Geez.

Potential arbitrage opportunity?:
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Memories
The wife located a first edition book by Jack Finney, "About Time", which is a collection of short stories regarding time travel. I loved it so much! What was funny is that as I was reading the first tale (The Third Level) I had a feeling of deja vu. When I arrived at the end of the story here it was:

941 Willard Street
Galesburg, Illinois
July 18, 1894

Charley:
I got to wishing that you were right. Then I got to believing you were right. And, Charley, it's true; I found the third level! I've been here two weeks, and right now, down the street at the Dalys', someone is playing a piano, and they're all out on the front Porch singing, “Seeing Nellie home.” And I'm invited over for lemonade. Come on back, Charley and Louisa. Keep looking till you find the third level! It's worth it, believe me!

BOOM!
As I read the first few words I recited the rest in my head! I was instantly transported back to 4th grade when I read this in class! What a memory to come back. Amazing really. Then I started thinking about grade school and thus the title for tonight's post was born.

Rock Blogging
Time for a few tunes to start your playoff weekend!

Loyal reader Watchtower has been here almost since day one way back in 2007 (has it been so long?). Any request of his for Friday night goes (well you know what will not!) so let's start the show with SAGA and "On the Loose":

Never heard it, but I like it!

CT Hilltopper wanted some Depeche Mode, and luckily the wife is their biggest fan! She suggests "Behind the Wheel" and live at that:

NICE! Second choice here.

The last time I played Roy Orbison, I had 19 comments on the post! If you all have not figured it out, comments are like rocket fuel for me, I love it. Lets roll with "I Drove All Night":

Love that one.

I need a Motley Crue fix and so let's go with "Too Young to Fall in Love":

Love it.

Two to go! What shall we play? If I had Twitter I could do a snap poll. Oh well.

Let's close with a little heavy, yes? You know how I roll.

Who remembers Ugly Kid Joe? I do, take a listen to "Everything about You":

Too funny.

Last call! Time to close the show.

You know it's coming! I want Randy Rhoads giving "Iron Man" a new life:

Unreal.

Have a good night.

wallpaper Return of the Friday

The week went by pretty well considering I was coming off a long holiday and often that will make a week back at work long indeed. All kinds of stuff to talk about tonight so here we go. I will press on even though I am guilty of many poor blog issues as per The Reformed Broker template but I am small time!

Trading Time
I have been using the iBankCoin model the PPT for this week and it has plenty of features that are great. Formerly I would screen stocks using various online tools and my eyes, but now things are much easier. One of my favorite types of screens in an uptrending market is too look for oversold stocks (technical or other) that have high institutional ownership. The theory is that big money will put more out to "defend" a stock they own a bit of. At least that's what I observe. Finding oversold stocks in this market is next to impossible of course, but you do what you can.

Two stocks came up last night and I really liked how the setups looked. I was attracted to:
EW at $78.81
NFLX at $178
I know, NFLX! I never said I was just going to buy metals! This is what is called trading, not investing or making a macro call. I had an issue with my brokerage through Bank of America buying EW but got is squared away and I was in NFLX at the the above price. I am looking for a nice bounce short term (5-7 days) that I hope will garner 10% wins on each. Not investment advice of course, I tend to suck at this stuff. I will update later on.

NFL Wild Card Weekend
The best time of the year is NFL playoff time! I love it. Here are my picks:
New Orleans Saints 34, Seattle Seahawks 20
Indianapolis Colts 27, New York Jets 24
Baltimore Ravens 23, Kansas City Chiefs 17
Green Bay Packers 31, Philadelphia Eagles 28
These are tough games to pick and foul weather in Seattle may be an issue for the Saints as well. Who knows?

Friday Night Entertainment
After a long hiatus, Friday Night has returned!

Did You Know?
-In "Return of the Jedi" Luke's lightsaber was to be blue but when shown against the desert backdrop in the film's opening fight scene on Jabba's barge, the blue blade was hard to see against the bright blue sky. Hence, the green lightsaber!
-Plants, insects, and some small mammals have an ability to find and harvest gold?
These actors turned down these roles:
-Will Smith – Turned down the role that eventually went to Keanu Reeve in “The Matrix”
-Tom Hanks – Turned down the role of Ray Kinsella in “Field of Dreams,” Andy Dufresne in “The Shawshank Redemption” and the lead role in “Jerry Maguire.”
-Keanu Reeves turned down Charlie Sheen’s role in “Platoon.”
More at the link!

Say it With Pictures
Classic:
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A crushing right hand in the 13th round wins the Heavyweight title for Rocky Marciano when he was trailing on points (in 1952):
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Find the video for this, it's a huge right hand!

Rock Blogging
The tunes have returned! You know you missed this!

While not the complete song (get the soundtrack already!) here is The Blasters playing "Blue Shadow" in the film "Streets of Fire" and pardon the Spanish stuff:

And yes that is Amy Madigan from "Field of Dreams".

How about The Cult with "Edie" (love the section at 2:30 to 3:06):

And no, not Edie Falco, though I used to find her hot!

Now picking a favorite Black Sabbath tune is like picking a favorite Beatles tune (except all their songs suck so bad they are all even!) but if I was pressed I am going with "Snowblind":

There are MANY close seconds however.

We have a request from my wife for tonight (thanks princess!), and so here we go with Edward Sharpe & The Magnetic Zeros and "Home":

I love you too darlin'! I like this one very much.

Ok, I am about out of time so two more to close the show!

When I took little kitty Jessie to the Vet for her wellness check, they had Cyndi Lauper's song "She Bop" on the radio and I remembered how much fun the song was:

Nice!

Well, Home is where the heart is, and so let's close the show with Motley Crue and "Home Sweet Home":

Good stuff.

Have a good night.